تجزیه‌ وتحلیل کمّی اثر اقتصادی فرو ش گاز طبیعی به روبل در روسیه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانش‌آموخته مدیریت کسب‌وکار، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران Email: Meisam.a97@gmail.com

چکیده

مطالعه حاضر به‌دنبال تجزیه‌وتحلیل تجربه روسیه در فروش گاز به روبل پس از شروع جنگ روسیه-اوکراین و اثرات اقتصادی ناشی از آن است. این مطالعه به‌صورت کمّی بوده و در آن با استفاده از داده‌های اقتصادی مربوط به بازه 5 ساله 2022-2018 یک مدل‌سازی کمّی صورت گرفته و اثرات فروش نفت و گاز بر رشد اقتصادی به دو صورت متقارن و نامتقارن بررسی می‌شود. روش مورد استفاده در مطالعه روش رگرسیون خطی چندعاملی با استفاده از داده‌های عینی استخراج‌شده از تابلوهای بازارهای کالا و ارز روسیه و گزارش‌های اقتصادی فصلی این کشور است. نتایج مطالعه حاکی از آن است که پس از ماه‌های اولیه درگیری بین دو کشور و کاهش ارزش روبل و نیز شرایط اقتصادی نامساعد روسیه، فروش گاز به روبل اگرچه در کوتاه‌مدت مانع از سقوط ناگهانی و شدید ارزش روبل از طریق افزایش عرضه ارز خارجی در روسیه شد؛ اما به خاطر اثرات سوء بر مقوله تولید داخلی، تقاضا برای تولید و تقاضا در بازارهای صادراتی در بلندمدت می‌تواند باعث بروز رکود و افت شاخص تولید ناخالص داخلی و در نهایت کاهش سرعت رشد اقتصادی و یا توقف آن شود. علاوه بر آن، پس از اصلاحات شاخص‌های اقتصادی صورت گرفته در سال 2023 میلادی و سقوط مجدد ارزش روبل در برابر دلار و افت شاخص تولید ناخالص داخلی، نتایج کمی به‌دست‌آمده در این مطالعه حاکی از آن است که تقویت مجدد نرخ روبل با استفاده از عوامل خارجی به هر نحو روند سقوط شاخص تولید ناخالص داخلی را به‌صورت مستقیم و متناسب با نرخ تقویت مجدد نرخ روبل، تشدید خواهد کرد. نتایج کمّی حاصل از مطالعه حاضر با مطالعات انجام‌شده همگرایی دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic Impact of Natural Gas Trade in Rubles by Russia: A Quantitative Study

نویسنده [English]

  • Alireza Akbarzadeh
MBA Graduate, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran Email: Meisam.a97@gmail.com
چکیده [English]

The present study seeks to econometrically investigate Russia's experience in selling natural gas in rubles since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. This study is quantitative and using economic data of the 5-year period of 2018-2022, a quantitative modeling of the effects of oil and gas sales on GDP as a result economic growth, as well as the asymmetric effect of gas sales in rubles on GDP growth are investigated. The method used in this study is multi-factor linear regression using direct market data and seasonal economic reports of Federative Russian Republic. The results of the study indicate that after the initial months of the conflict between the two countries and the depreciation of the ruble, as well as the unfavorable political and economic conditions of Russia, gas trade in rubles in response to the conditions, although in the short term prevented a severe fall in the value through the increase in the supply of foreign currency in Russia, but due to the negative effects on domestic production, the demand for production and the demand for export in the long term, can cause stagnation and drop in the GDP index and ultimately reduce the speed of economic growth or even put an end to it. Furthermore; after the fall of the ruble exchange rate and the fall of the GDP index in 2023, according to the quantitative results obtained in this study, the re-strengthening of the ruble rate using external factors will intensify the falling trend of the GDP index directly and proportionally to the strengthening rate of the ruble. The results are also in full convergence with available economic literature.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Natural Gas
  • Ruble Exchange Value
  • Russia
  • Ukraine

مراجع

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