عنوان مقاله [English]
Cyberspace, with its increasing expansion, has affected many areas and has left (profound) changes in various areas, including national security. Given the wide dimensions of cyberspace in this study, we are trying to identify future trends in social networks and scenarios of its impact on national security.
This qualitative research has been compiled using the main methods of futures research such as interaction analysis and scenario planning for the statistical population of Tehran based on the opinion of experts. For this purpose, the probability of events occurring with the propulsion forces as well as the interaction of events have been investigated. The main drivers include "infrastructure factors", "technical management" and "private sector management", which also explain future uncertainties.
According to the research findings, which were the result of these three uncertainties and eight possible scenarios, the new communication networks have transformed the equations of social relations and all areas of life and work, and consequently severely overshadow various cultural, economic, social and most importantly security areas. have given. Socio-cultural actors will have to create a new space of interaction with endogenous norms and rules and confront the formation of a new social identity in opposition to accepted social structures, norms and values. Among these scenarios, the "most likely future" is for an environment in which the infrastructure is developed, the private sector management is almost active and motivated, and finally the technical management is intelligently and robustly performing its tasks.
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