َAnalysis and Evaluating Strategic Options in the Oil Field with a Foresight Approach

The main objective of the present research is to identify and evaluate strategic options in the field of oil with a futuristic approach in the 1410s horizons. This research is from the point of view of applied, developmental, and information gathering, a descriptive study of the survey field and in terms of nature, based on new methods of future science, analysis and exploration, which has been done using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The statistical society in this study includes a set of specialists and experts with a futuristic and strategic vision of the oil industry. Regarding the nature of this research, structural analysis, cross-impact analysis, decision making, and multi-criteria analysis have been used in this study. Microeconomic, scenario-based and multi-platform software has been used for data analysis. The results of the study showed that the action (option) "Development of existing refineries and the construction of new refineries" and "Supporting Vulnerable Investments in the Oil Industry" are superior to the 1410s for most of the criteria. An examination of the fluctuation pattern of measures (options) shows that the "renewal and improvement of production and exploitation of oil fields" is the most unstable and the "support for risky investments" is the most stable. An analysis of the policy instability chart also shows that the policy of "increasing private sector participation" is the most unstable and the policy of "increasing the recycling factor" has the most stable rating.