1
Graduated in Futurology of Supreme National Defense University and Responsible Author
2
. Professor of Tehran University
3
Assistant professor of Supreme National Defense University
4
Assistant professor of Tehran University
Abstract
The transition from the centrally planned and oil-based economy to the free market economy involves providing its foundations and improving the business environment, as a prerequisite and indeed the starting point for adoption of the required measures and implementation of reform policies in the economy.This applied study was conducted to identify the business environment scenarios in the Islamic Republic of Iran.To this aim, it provided a comprehensive analysis of the business environment in this country and tried to describe its future through the GBN scenario planning approach.Following a literature review, a total of 56 experts, agents and officials active in business were used as the statistical population.Data were collected using the desk-based research method, interviews and questionnaires, and with the help of focus groups.The data of the questionnaire, as the source for identifying the drivers, the key factors of change and uncertainties, were prioritized using quantitative methods.The results of the questionnaire based on the key uncertainties consisted of the following four scenarios: 1) The government’s reluctance to improve the business environment, accompanied by corruption and abuse of administrative positions in government agencies (when everyone was asleep), 2) Fighting and reducing corruption alongside the government’s reluctance to improve the business environment (quarantine), 3) The government's determination to improve the business environment despite corruption and abuse of administrative positions in government agencies (crossing the minefield), and 4) The government's determination to improve the business environment alongside a full-scale fight against corruption and abuse of administrative positions (the treasure castle).
حسین زاده بحرینی، محمد حسین و ملک الساداتی، سعید (1390)، موانع نهادی سرمایه‌گذاری وکسب‌وکار در ایران، فصلنامه پژوهشنامه بازرگانی، شماره 59، تابستان 1390، 55-25.
مرکز پژوهش‌های اتاق ایران (1398)، پایش ملی محیط کسب‌وکار ایران، مرکزآمار واطلاعات اقتصادی اتاق ایران، گزارش دوره دوازدهم.
مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی (اردیبهشت 1396)، اقداماتلازمبرایبهبودرتبهایران درگزارشسال2018انجامکسبوکاربانکجهانی، شماره مسلسل 15377، تاریخ انتشار:26/2/1396.
مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی (دی ماه 1396)، گزارشنظارتیدرباره اجرایقوانینمربوطبهمحیطکسب وکار- گزارش عملکرد قانون بهبود محیط کسب‌وکار- شماره مسلسل 15623، تاریخ انتشار:3/10/1396
مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی (دی ماه 1397)، بررسی لایحه بودجه 1398 کل کشور، الزامات بهبود محیط کسب‌وکار، شماره مسلسل 16279، تاریخ انتشار30/10/1397)
مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی (بهمن 1398)، ارزیابی عملکرد شورای گفتگوی دولت و بخش خصوصی – ارزیابی اجرای حکم 14 مندرج در ماده (11) قانون بهبود محیط کسب‌وکار، شماره مسلسل 16884، تاریخ انتشار 13/11/ 1398.
ب. منابع انگلیسی
Arruñada Benito, (2008). Will Doing Business Keep Damaging Business?, Forthcoming, Journal of Comparative Economics
McLiesh Caralee.(2006). Doing Business in 2006: Creating Jobs.Djankov Simeon, and copublication of the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation.
Safaeimazid, J., Motavasseli, M., Amini, S. J. & Padash, H. (2022). Development of business environment scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran with a strategic approach. Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge, 6(22), 173–196.
MLA
Safaeimazid, J., Motavasseli, M., Amini, S. J., & Padash, H. "Development of business environment scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran with a strategic approach", Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge, 6, 22, 2022, 173–196.
HARVARD
Safaeimazid, J., Motavasseli, M., Amini, S. J., & Padash, H. (2022). 'Development of business environment scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran with a strategic approach', Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge, 6(22), pp. 173–196.
CHICAGO
Safaeimazid, J., Motavasseli, M., Amini, S. J. & Padash, H., "Development of business environment scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran with a strategic approach." Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge, 6 22 (2022): 173–196,
VANCOUVER
Safaeimazid J., Motavasseli M., Amini S. J., Padash H. Development of business environment scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran with a strategic approach. Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge. 2022;6(22):173–196 (In Persian).
