Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge

Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge

Investigating the effect of oil price and exchange rate uncertainty on the adoption of an optimal monetary strategy in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mohamad sadegh Haji mola mirzaee 1
Hamid Haji molla mirzaee 2
Hasan Shokouh 3
1 Student and responsible author
2 Academic Member of Imam Hossein Comprehensive University
3 science Committee
Abstract
Implementing an optimal monetary strategy is empirically as well as policy-making. Monetary strategy as a key component in many macroeconomic theories has always been the subject of widespread debate among economists. Studies in developed countries show that the correct implementation of monetary strategy depends on macroeconomic variables, especially shocks to these variables. Considering the role and position of oil prices and exchange rates and uncertainty in the changes of these macroeconomic variables in the Iranian economy, this study aims to investigate the impact of oil price and exchange rate uncertainty on optimal monetary strategy in Iran to estimate the optimal monetary strategy model in Iran. Has used and used ARDL method with vector intervals with wide intervals to estimate the pattern. The data of regression pattern variables are annual and the period between 1981 and 1397 in the Iranian economy. The result of model estimation showed that the coefficient of variable oil price uncertainty in the short and long term is negative and statistically significant. Also, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the optimal monetary strategy in the economy is negative and significant. Finally, according to the model, the impact of GDP on the implementation of the optimal monetary strategy in Iran is positive and significant, which in a way confirms the trading demand for money.
 
Keywords
Uncertainty
exchange rates
oil prices
monetary strategy
ARDL

  • الف. منابع فارسی

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Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge
Volume 5, Issue 19
Winter 2022
Pages 223-250