2
Academic Member of Imam Hossein Comprehensive University
3
science Committee
Abstract
Implementing an optimal monetary strategy is empirically as well as policy-making. Monetary strategy as a key component in many macroeconomic theories has always been the subject of widespread debate among economists. Studies in developed countries show that the correct implementation of monetary strategy depends on macroeconomic variables, especially shocks to these variables. Considering the role and position of oil prices and exchange rates and uncertainty in the changes of these macroeconomic variables in the Iranian economy, this study aims to investigate the impact of oil price and exchange rate uncertainty on optimal monetary strategy in Iran to estimate the optimal monetary strategy model in Iran. Has used and used ARDL method with vector intervals with wide intervals to estimate the pattern. The data of regression pattern variables are annual and the period between 1981 and 1397 in the Iranian economy. The result of model estimation showed that the coefficient of variable oil price uncertainty in the short and long term is negative and statistically significant. Also, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the optimal monetary strategy in the economy is negative and significant. Finally, according to the model, the impact of GDP on the implementation of the optimal monetary strategy in Iran is positive and significant, which in a way confirms the trading demand for money.
ابریشمی، حمید و محسن مهرآرا (1383)، انحراف نرخ ارز حقیقی تعادلی و سیاست‌های، تجاری در اقتصاد ایران، فصلنامه پژوهشنامه بازرگانی، شماره ٣٣
اسلاملوییان، کریم (1383)، بررسی تاثیر تکانه‌های نرخ ارز رسمی بر اضافه قیمت بازار سیاه ارز در ایران، پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، شماره ١٩
خاوری، افشین (1377)، تنظیم نادرست نرخ واقعی ارز و صادرات کشاورزی، پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه شیراز.
ختائی، محمود و ابوالفضل خاوری نژاد (1375)، بررسی رفتار نرخ واقعی ارز در اقتصاد ایران، مجموعه مقالات ششمین کنفرانس سیاست‌های پولی و ارزی تحقیقات پولی و بانکی.
خوش بخت، آمنه و محمد اخباری (1386)، بررسی فرآیند اثر گذاری تغییرات نرخ ارز بر تورم شاخص‌های قیمت مصرف کننده و واردات در ایران، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، شماره ٢٧
رستمی، نسرین (1384)، اثرات نامتقارن نوسانات نرخ ارز بر تولید حقیقی و قیمت درایران، پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تبریز.
زیرک، مرتضی (1378)، بررسی تاثیر عدم اطمینان حاصل از نوسانات نر خ ارز بر صادرات غیر نفتی، پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.
ب. منابع انگلیسی
Chen, S.S. and Chen, H.C. (2017). Oil prices and real exchange rates, Energy Economics, 29, 390-404.
Doroodian, K. and Roy, Boyd (2018). the linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in presence of technological advances: A CGE model, Energy Policy, Vol. 31, 981-1006.
Elder, J. and Serletis, A. (2019). Oil price uncertainty in Canada, Journal of Energy Economics, Vol. 31, No. 6, 852-856.
Farzanegan, M. R. & Markwardt, G. (2018). The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy, Energy Economics, 31, 134-151.
Hamilton, J. D. and Herrera, A. (2014). Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol, 36, 265-286.
Hamilton, J. D. (2015). Oil and the Macroeconomy, forthcoming in S. Durlauf and L. Blume(eds), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd ed., Palgrave MacMillan Ltd.
Kilian, L. (2008). The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol:46, No: 4, 871-909.
Vergil,Hasan (2018). Echange Rate Volatility and Its Effect on Trade Flows, Journal of Economic and Social Research, Vol 4, No.1.
Wang,Kai-Li; Barret Christopher B. (2017). A New Look at the Trade Volume Effects of Real Exchange Rate Risk, Forthcoming in Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Cote, Agathe (2018). Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade ; a Survey, Working Paper 94-5,Bank of Canada.
Grier,Kevin B., Smallwood, Aaron D. (2006). Uncertainty and ExportPerformance: Evidence from 18 Countries, Department of Economics, University of Oklahoma.
Mimaza Agolli,MS.c (2005). Exchange Rate Volatility Effect onTrade Variations, Albanian Center for International Trade.
Munyama Todani, K.R, T.V (2005). Exchange Rate Volatility andExports in South Africa, South African Reserve Bank.
Rey, Serge (2016). Effective Exchange Rate Volatility and MENA Countries, Exports to the EU, Journal of Economic Development, Vol
Haji mola mirzaee, M. S., Haji molla mirzaee, H., & Shokouh, H. (2021). Investigating the effect of oil price and exchange rate uncertainty on the adoption of an optimal monetary strategy in Iran. Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge, 5(19), 223-250.
MLA
Mohamad sadegh Haji mola mirzaee; Hamid Haji molla mirzaee; Hasan Shokouh. "Investigating the effect of oil price and exchange rate uncertainty on the adoption of an optimal monetary strategy in Iran", Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge, 5, 19, 2021, 223-250.
HARVARD
Haji mola mirzaee, M. S., Haji molla mirzaee, H., Shokouh, H. (2021). 'Investigating the effect of oil price and exchange rate uncertainty on the adoption of an optimal monetary strategy in Iran', Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge, 5(19), pp. 223-250.
VANCOUVER
Haji mola mirzaee, M. S., Haji molla mirzaee, H., Shokouh, H. Investigating the effect of oil price and exchange rate uncertainty on the adoption of an optimal monetary strategy in Iran. Interdisciplinary Studies on Strategic Knowledge, 2021; 5(19): 223-250.
)
